Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi partners -
Here is an update concerning the arctic cold threat next week.
As a side note, we have gotten a few questions about the potential for wintry precipitation late next week as well. While a few models indicate low end potential for wintry precipitation (mainly in southwest Mississippi), the probability is just that - low. In fact, a blended approach currently yields less than a 5% chance of wintry precipitation at any given point in the forecast area. We will continue to monitor the situation and will provide updates if the threat increases.
Changes from previous update:
No substantial changes in the forecasted conditions compared to yesterday's email.
Note that Sunday night into Monday morning will be a transition time, with low temperatures Monday morningreaching into the mid-30s over most of the area and to about 30 in the southwest Mississippi counties.
Overview:
WHAT: Widespread freeze and hard freeze conditions
WHEN: Each night Monday night through Wednesday night
WHERE: All of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi with the greatest threat across areas along/north of the I-10/12 corridor
CONFIDENCE: We have high confidence in the occurrence of widespread freezing conditions across most of the area, with hard freeze conditions (25 degrees or lower) for many areas along/north of the interstate 10/12 corridor.
Impacts:
- Temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s across southwestern Mississippi to the low to mid 30s across coastal southeastern Louisiana. Temperatures are forecast to be below freezing for up to 15 hours for northern areas and 1-6 hours for southern areas each night.
- Wind chills of 15 to 25 degrees are forecast Monday night into Tuesday morning and Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with wind chills in the 20 to 30 degree rangeWednesday night into Thursday morning.
- For areas where temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s for an extended period (generally, more than 6 hours), conditions could result in damage to unprotected pipes. Elsewhere, impacts will mainly be to sensitive vegetation.
- In all areas, those without reliable access to warm shelter may suffer from hypothermia.
The graphics below highlight the low temperature forecasts as well as the probability of temperatures 25 degrees or lower Tuesday-Thursday mornings.
