Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi partners -
Here is an update concerning the severe weather threat for tomorrow, January 5th.
Changes from previous update:
- Confidence is increasing in the threat of severe weather (damaging winds in particular).
- The time of arrival for the line of storms and associated severe weather threat has trended slightly earlier/faster (see timing graphic).
Overview:
WHAT: SLIGHT RISK of Severe Weather
WHEN: Late Sunday afternoon and into the overnight hours Sunday night.
WHERE: All of southeast LA and southern MS, especially along and north of I-10/12.
CONFIDENCE:
- Confidence is high that severe thunderstorms embedded within a line of storms will develop on Sunday afternoon and move east across Louisiana.
- Confidence is medium that this line of thunderstorms will sustain and reach parts of southeast LA and southwest MS, especially north of the I-10 corridor and west of the I-55 corridor.
- Confidence is low regarding how quickly the line of storms will weaken as it moves into southeast LA and southern MS. However, the latest trends in the forecast have favored a faster movement of the line meaning an earlier arrival to coastal areas Sunday night and it could also mean the line is able to hold together better.
Impacts:
The main threats associated with any severe storms will be-
Damaging Winds:
- Storms capable of wind gusts greater than 60 mph.
- Winds of this magnitude are capable of causing damage to trees and power lines, leading to isolated/scattered power outages
Tornadoes:
- Stronger storms embedded within this line could produce a tornado.
Rainfall:
- Runoff will lead to ponding of water in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage.
- If the line of storms weakens before arrival, the flooding threat will decrease.
The attached briefing/graphic(s) below highlights the threats associated with this system.
