weather

Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather

City of Central

December 27, 2024

Please see the below update from NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge concerning upcoming Severe Weather.


There will be an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for most of Saturday through early Sunday morning.

  • High probability of tornado threats, potential wind gusts over 60mph, and large size hail possible.  
weather

The NWS is tracking two possible rounds of Severe Weather.

  • The timing of the two storms impacting EBR is consecutively; however, there may be a break in the late afternoon. 
    • First Round: 10:00 AM - 6:00 PM
    • Second Round: 6:00 PM - 12:00 AM Sunday
weather

Overview:


WHAT: An ENHANCED RISK of Severe Weather Saturday & Saturday Night.



WHEN: Saturday Morning thru the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. There could be two rounds of strong/severe storms:

  • Round 1: Thunderstorms developing earlier across western & northern areas Saturday morning thru the afternoon. 
  • Round 2: The main line of activity will progress west to east across the entire area Saturday evening/overnight from 6PM Saturday through 5AM Sunday.

WHERE: All of SE LA and southern MS, with greatest risk generally along/north of I-10/12. For each round:

  • Round 1: For storms developing out ahead, the threat would be greatest for northern and western areas or from I-59, west and north. 
  • Round 2: For all of SE LA and southern MS.


CONFIDENCE: There is an overall MEDIUM to HIGH confidence of severe weather Saturday & Saturday Night, details include: 

  • Round 1: Confidence in the development of cells out ahead for northwestern areas is LOW to MEDIUM. However, should these develop, there is a higher confidence any one of these storms could contain damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes, some of which could be strong, especially in the Enhanced Risk area.
  • Round 2: Confidence in the main activity sweeping across the area overnight is MEDIUM to HIGH. Storms overnight could contain large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong, especially in the Enhanced Risk area


Impacts:


The main threats associated with any severe storms will be:


Damaging Winds:

  • Severe thunderstorms will be capable of wind gusts greater than 70 mph.
  • Winds of this magnitude are capable of downing trees or large tree limbs leading to structural damage and scattered power outages, and can also cause damage to weaker structures.

Large Hail:

  • Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail of up to 1.5 inch in diameter.
  • Hail of this size is capable of causing damage to cars/crops and causing injury to people and animals.

Tornadoes:

  • Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes and a few could be strong.

Rainfall:

  • In addition to the severe weather threat, rainfall of up to 2 inches is forecast with localized areas of 3" or greater if storms track over the same areas. Heaviest rainfall will be focused along and north of the I-10/12 corridor
  • Runoff could lead to ponding of water in low lying areas and areas of poor drainage.